Last weekend I put out this setup on $ES_F with a 4115 pivot and the long above it towards 4205.
4115 (my pivot) was the low for the week and we indeed rallied over 4205+. Now we have met that 4205 target and we still have some room ahead next towards my 4234-4256-66 targets.
It’s important in times like these to keep focused on the broader perspective. While it may seem “bullish” you need to keep in mind that we are just a typical downtrend, lower highs and lower lows. And, while we did put in a higher low technically, we have not yet put in a higher high in the bigger picture. See below the SPY 0.00%↑ weekly chart:
The past 12 months show a trading range between 360-430 and it is very premature to be calling this a new bull market. Although I’m hesitant to call this rangebound trading a “rally” this move has largely been caused by a “flight to safety” influx of funds into big tech. While some like $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $NVDA, and others have had large rallies, the broader part of the indexes have not. This rally is despite the fed continuing to raise rates, with no real indication of cuts to come and the market currently is basically priced to perfection basically assuming that we will not have a default, no recession, no real consequences of the global macro issues.
SPY 0.00%↑ has now entered the gap fill area from the August selloff however it has left an unfilled gap below at 396.49 which will eventually be filled. We also had a large dark pool transaction near the highs on Friday.
In the Discord we had some good plays in TSLA 0.00%↑ SNAP 0.00%↑ and SPY 0.00%↑. We jumped in SPY 0.00%↑ $425C for JULY once we noticed that $8M call sweep on SPY 422C JUN 16. It came just before the large rally and breakout from that bull flag on ES.
On TSLA 0.00%↑ i sent in the weekly plan the move of the wedge breakout to target the 50SMA, and we got exactly that. We took some $180C for JUN 16 @ 5.8 and we sold them for over 10!
I also had alerted leaps on SNAP 0.00%↑ back at $8 and we saw a reversion to the mean and gap fill play with the stock moving up over 22%
We continue to see some quality setups for the weeks and months to come which are shared with paid subscribers and in the discord. You can join the discord at (jmoptiontrading.com)
Something to keep in mind is that I prefer to make fewer larger higher RR trades throughout the year vs more frequent higher risk trades. This means I may personally pass on daytrading/swing trading something like SPY from 415 to 430, but go heavier on something like SPY 415 to 340. I like big range moves, and i’m willing to be patient on them for a potential high reward trade.
Here’s the economic calendar for next week, keep in mind that “debt ceiling / default” talks can become a reversal catalyst at any moment as we head into end of month.
For this upcoming week I will be watching the following setups and levels:
SPY 0.00%↑
Continue to observe this large megaphone (daily) and bull channel (weekly) as it approaches major resistance at 421.11-422.23. This area should serve as a stop or halt for this rally if we close the next week below it. We can then start to explore the lower end of the megaphone around $400 if we manage a break below $414.05. This will be our pivot for the week.
414.05 Pivot
→ Below this we can start a breakdown to 50sma at 406.30 and below towards 400.
→ Above this bulls remain in control and we can slowly grind higher into 421.11, 422.23 and 428.33 as an overshoot before finding major major resistance.
$ES_F
4155 Pivot
I think that we could sell down into 4156-4166 area and it will still be able to produce a bounce to retest 4230. However we can get a breakdown if it falls below 4155.
→ Above 4155 can target 4170, 4194, 4205, 4224, 4230, 4234, 4256
→ Below 4155 can target 4134, 4115, 4100, 4085, 4056
QQQ 0.00%↑
RSI is overheated on daily. Breakout from rising wedge may be premature, will need to see if bulls close the week over 331.49.
→ Above 338 can target 349.71
→ Below 331.49 can target 324.55, 316.04.
TSLA 0.00%↑
175.60 Pivot
→ Above pivot R levels are 177.95, 183, 190-194
→ Below pivot can target 170, 166 then 160 again
AAPL 0.00%↑
Important to look at bigger picture which is that it is technically in a weekly upside breakout. My opinion though is that this is a relatively low risk short (not 0dte) due to the valuation, overheated rsi, supporting orderflow and the fact that this upside breakout is on declining volume and low volume.
175 Pivot
→ Above this can target 180-182.94
→ Below this can retest wedge bottom at 168. Below this is a breakdown to 50sma 162.36
DIS 0.00%↑
DIS continues to trade longer term in a falling wedge. $84-$92 is a value area on DIS 0.00%↑ IMO, and I have started to accumulate shares and 2024/2025 leaps. Looking at a rebound to $124 then 135 several months out (6+)
GOOGL 0.00%↑
Heavy strength fueled by AI fomo. AI serving as a sort of hedge of sorts. VERY OVERBOUGHT RSI AND NEEDS A RESET!!! There is definitely supporting flow for a potential into 136.95, however it needs a dip before continuing.
125.49 pivot
→ Below this RSI reset target 117.45-118.77. Below that target 113
→ Above this is a parabolic run to 136.95 which is a very risky chase.
AMZN 0.00%↑
113.48 Pivot
→ pivot may be supported for a move back to 118 and 122.39
→ Below this is a reversion to the mean to 110 and 106.73.
That’s all for now, stay tuned to the discord for real-time updates.
Have a wonderful rest of your weekend!
-Jovan