This week was chop on top of chop as SPY 0.00%↑ formed a megaphone, within a megaphone. Coincidently QQQ 0.00%↑ also formed a rising wedge, within a rising wedge. There were a few exceptions to the chop, such as GOOGL 0.00%↑ which had a massive breakout from 105 to 118, and NFLX 0.00%↑ from 325 to 348.
SPY 0.00%↑ left both gaps unfilled last week, and really didn’t go anywhere outside of the 409.22 and 413.75 range.
However despite this chop we did seize some quick swing setups, such asAMD 0.00%↑ :
And we achieved that by Friday’s close, marking a good short spot:
We also sent the setup on TSLA 0.00%↑ for the gap fill to 177 as long as it was above $170:
And that was also to plan, almost to the penny:
We continue to see some quality setups for the weeks and months to come which are shared with paid subscribers and in the discord.
As if OPEX were not interesting enough, we have POWELL speaking on OPEX day. Here’s the calendar of events for next week:
For this upcoming OPEX week I will be watching the following setups and levels:
SPY 0.00%↑
Continue to observe this 409.22-413.75 range and possible we have a move to both sides of the range in the week. There will be double support at orderflow level 406.61 as 50SMA comes up near that zone. We still have unfilled gaps in both directions.
409.22 pivot
→ Below this we can fill downside gap and target 406.61 orderflow level and 50sma at 404.69
→ Above this we can likely retest 412.55, 413.75. Above 413.75 we can target the upside gap fill.
$ES_F
4155 fib level has held the line for the past 45 days.
4115 Pivot
→ Above this targets 4124, 4134, 4148, 4156. Above 4156 likely sees 4170, 4194, 4205
→ Below this targets 4104, 4094, 4085, 4082 (50sma)
QQQ 0.00%↑
Rising wedge within rising wedge. Looking at this one for clues on SPY 0.00%↑ as it has been leading.
Inner wedge R at 326.43.
→ Outer wedge R at 331.49, massive breakout above to 348-350
Inner wedge S at 321.
→ Outer wedge S at 313.26, massive breakdown below to 285-290.
TSLA 0.00%↑
170 Pivot
→ Above pivot can target 175.60 again. Above that will be 50sma at 179.36
→ Below pivot can target 166 then 160 again. Below 160 will be retest at 155
AAPL 0.00%↑
170.36 Pivot
→ Above this can retest 174 R. Above that is 180.
→ Below this can retest wedge bottom at 168. Below this is a breakdown to 50sma 162.36
DIS 0.00%↑
DIS had a nasty sell off this week from 104 to 91, and continues to trade longer term in a falling wedge. $84-$92 is a value area on DIS 0.00%↑ IMO, and I have started to accumulate shares and 2024/2025 leaps. Looking at a rebound to $124 then 135 several months out (6+)
GOOGL 0.00%↑
Heavy strength fueled by AI fomo. AI serving as a sort of hedge of sorts.
117.45 pivot
→ Below this can retest breakout and fill gap at 112.94.
→ Above this can test 118.77, and 125.49
*Note that daily RSI is extremely overbought and no reset has yet taken place.
AMZN 0.00%↑
Failure at 113 again.
110 Pivot
→ Above this can retest 113
→ Below this is a 8ema retrace to 108.08 and retest of fib level at 106.73
That’s all for now, stay tuned to the discord for real-time updates.
Have a wonderful weekend and Happy Mother’s Day to the wonderful mothers in our group!
-Jovan