Pointed out the 4095 battleground level in last weeks’ newsletter and this week we had 4 encounters with it before finally taking it out, but closing above it on the following day. It turned into a temporary support break but ultimately held, for now. This overall leans bullish as we closed at 4100 for the week, keeping the bull flag in tact. On the weekly, it was an inside bar which means a big move is coming.
The $ES_F chart above shows that we have traded within this channel since the initial breakout from 3810. This is what we will continue to watch next week.
4056 must fall in order for there to be a sell towards that next level at 4000. A daily close below 4000 would start a pullback to 3900-3950.
If there is no daily close below 4056, then we are likely setting up for 4200+.
I had also given some levels on TSLA 0.00%↑ & META 0.00%↑
We got a great short setup on both as TSLA went from 205 → 192 and META from 181 → 173.
You can read the prior newsletter here, I have now made it public.
Below is the calendar for Monday & Tuesday
Below i’ll go over some important levels for next week:
$ES_F
CPI on Tuesday
Chop zone between 4056 and 4130
Above 4130 likely revisit of 4170 and 4205+
Below 4056 likely drop to 4000 and 3950
For $SPY, replace 4130 with 410.56 and 4056 with 403.75
Pullback day for TSLA after a doji yesterday. Important fib level at 198.02. Still has my interest here mainly because of the OTM flow that continues to pour in. There is a ton of $220C/$230C for FEB 17 and these $240C FEB 24 that just came through.
If 198.02 holds it is likely to revisit 210 area. If holds over 210, likely we will move rapidly towards 221.26 (38.2% fib) and the 200SMA at 225.97.
However, 190 LIS. If 190 is lost, we can try a short back to the 23.6% fib at $176.50 and the 21ema at 172.24.
Pullback on ER rally after 61.8% fib resistance found. Watching to see if this is a bull flag / channel forming, as it would be a good bounce spot for a trip back to the 50% at 180.65.
Above 170.37 targets 180.65 & 186.65 overshoot
Below 170.37 targets 21ema at 160.49 and double fib line at 158
AMZN closed in a doji today and there was some last minute $100C FEB 17 flow that came through which would be an 8ema retest / top of the wedge and match $ES_F’s moves next week.
Above $98 target $100.54, and 102.53 overshoot
Below $97.61 target 94.57 and 92.99 (50sma) overshoot
GOOGL double top has now basically reached it’s full target at the 50SMA. As an investing opportunity I think we will find better prices at 76-80 (posted this in discord a month ago), however as a trade setup, we do have 2 closes over the 50SMA here since the drop which may mean we can get a retracement back to $99.44 and possible form a head & shoulders.
Above $94 target 97.87, 99.44 overshoot
Below $94 target 92.67, $90 overshoot
DIS gapped up over $120 for ER and gave all of it back selling below the 8ema. Today it closed just above the 200sma.
Will continue to watch here for retracement back up to 113.64 area with a 108 LIS.
Above 108 target 109.76 (8 ema), 112.14, 113.64
Below 108 target 105.48
Real time updates will be posted in the discord. You can signup for discord at www.jmoptiontrading.com. I also post updates on my twitter so make sure to follow me there for updates https://twitter.com/jovanroche.
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Have a wonderful weekend!!
-Jovan