Today we were on quite the rollercoaster as we saw a swing from 4170 to 4098 and a full roundtrip to visit 4180.
There continues to be a massive sweep of puts coming in for all sorts of strikes and expiry dates past 3/17. There is also an enormous of OI on 2/17 OTM puts.
I have mentioned that a drop to 3800 at this point, would simply be a return to the mean, and not a fat payday as bears have been squeezed and smart bulls have a 3500 entry.
Today SPY 0.00%↑ retested the lower end of the wedge and bounced back to “confirm” the initial breakout. In other words a backtest was completed and a confirmation of the breakout to the upside was put in. This can be seen not just because of the wedge backtest and breakout, but also the bullish engulfing after yesterday’s doji.
Technically speaking now it does look bad for the bears, however I will re-iterate that my opinion here is that the R:R for upside does not make alot of sense here at 4180, and I will hold on to my same thoughts of 3800 will soon come. Now that, can look like a double top here at 4190, or a 2B top at 4223, but upside here is limited, with 4309 being my max, the 61.8% fib extension.
For tomorrow I will focus on these levels:
413.75 Pivot
Below pivot target 411.58/410.56, 406.61 (major support)
Above pivot 415.92, 417.81, 419.99 (gapfill / orderflow), 422.23 (major resistance)
I also want to keep an eye on TSLA 0.00%↑ which has had some interesting flow… I’ve noticed alot of $220C flow for this week, with a 2/10 expiry. That’s more than 10% OTM and expires in 3 days.
Setup for tomorrow on $TSLA:
→ Over 200, grab 2/10 - 2/17 calls for play to 221
→ Below 188 target 182, overshoot 175
I will make an effort to send these out more often, however keep in mind these will be available to paid subscribers only moving forward. The cost is currently $14.99 per month, and the discord is available for $50 per month.
I posted a couple of weeks a GIF of a bunch of bears on a rollercoaster.. and well that’s EXACTLY what we’ve gotten so far.
Exciting day ahead of us tomorrow!
-Jovan