March 8th, 2023
March 8th, 2023
Sellers defend 407.22, right shoulder being made on $SPY
Over the weekend I sent out an update warning that we likely were making a right shoulder on SPY 0.00 / $ES_F and sure enough we saw a massive rejection at 407.22, that prior dark pool seller level we had been talking about for the week before.
We can see a potential head & shoulders pattern that can play out here as we approach 4100 on $ES_F again, although it’s still too early to assume, but we should keep in mind that we may be forming a right shoulder now on SPY -1.20%↓ and $ES_F.
The most important thing for me next week will be to watch that prior dark pool sell area at 406.61-407.22. If we reject hard at that level, then 383.78-387.66 is still on the cards for March.
For the bullish case to 4223-4300, I will need to see a couple of daily closes over 4085.
Otherwise, it is likely that sellers will re-emerge as we approach the 4100 area for a trip back down to 3940, and deeper to 3894.
Notably there has been continuous bearish put flow, and aggressive repetitive sweepers even into the SPY 0.00 $385P for MAR 24. The quick run up from 3950 to 4050 was too rapid, is typical in head & shoulders patterns and means we likely test the neckline at 3940 again. If that breaks then a sell to 3750-3810 is in order
Here is the economic news calendar for tomorrow (Powell again)
For tomorrow and the rest of the week I will keep an eye on the following levels:
My levels on $ES_F for the entire week will be:
For the bullish case to 4223-4300, I will need to see a couple of daily closes over 4085.
Otherwise, it is likely that sellers will re-emerge as we approach the 4100 area for a trip back down to 3940, and deeper to 3894.
Specifically for tomorrow:
Below 4000 target 3950, 3914
Above 4040 target 4060
SPY 0.00
Major rejection at 407.22 dark pool seller level
As long as 406.61-407.22 is not breached, I favor a sell back towards 393.14 and 390.59.
400.67 pivot
→ Above pivot target 403.75
→ Below pivot target 396.6
TSLA 0.00
Pennant breakdown / retest / confirmed continuation to the downside
194 pivot
→ Below Pivot target 188, 185. 175.60
→ Above pivot target 198.02
AAPL 0.00
Triple top - rejection of breakout, hard reject at 156.
Immediate gap filled below, another gap left at 146.71.
Maintain short below 153.56 and target 142.23 (50SMA). Stops on shorts only on 2 consecutive daily closes over 153.56
NVDA 0.00
8ema has held everyday since the ER breakout. Want to see 2 consecutive daily closes below 8ema to take heavy shorts back to 211.04 and 199.18
Will send out real time updates in the discord.
- Jovan