Very eventful day for markets following FOMC. We first saw a fake breakout over the 50sma on SPY 0.00%↑ followed by a deep sell back below the 200sma. Typically we see a fake initial move on FOMC and that was the case today as well. Yesterday I mentioned the unfilled gap at 394.17 and we took care of that today.
Observations today:
→ 50SMA / orderflow 400.67 rejection
→ Trendline rejection (dotted blue above)
→ Sell on increasing volume below all moving averages and below the dark pool level at 393.63
Multiple topping candles on many tickers were observed, more on this later.
Calendar for tomorrow
Yesterday I posted the plan for SPY 0.00%↑ today:
We indeed saw the fulfillment of both upside and downside targets with the HOD at 402.49 and the LOD at 392.07.
For tomorrow, here’s what i’m watching:
$ES_F
Bears can continue pressure below 3970.
Above 4000 can see retest of 4014-4024 however this likely gets sold back to 3970.
Below 3970 we can target 3914. Below 3914 would open up 3894.
396.60 pivot
→ Below pivot target 393.63, 390.59, 389.15, 387.66
→ Above pivot target 400.67 and most likely get ready to short again.
NVDA has been on a tear lately and this one had 300C flow for next week before today. It put in a topping candle today - and as long as it goes below 260, it’s setting up for a drop back to 230-235. RSI is red hot.
Below 260, target 255.42, 253, 240, 233
AAPL 0.00%↑ seemingly broke out over that 156 level on an inverted h&s, however as i've mentioned on discord, it seems unlikely for AAPL to get that IHS breakout to 180 without ES going over 4300.
My LIS will be 160. As long as we do not close above 1260 I think we will at a minimum retest the breakout back at 152-153 area. Below that sets up a bigger short, but watching for tomorrow’s candle and will send out update over the weekend.
I put this chart out with the red circle as a prime pullback spot for AMD, and so far, good topping candle put in there as well. RSI red hot and I think this one is ready for pullback to 89.
My LIS on a short here will be 99.23. As long as no close above, we can short to 96.55, 93.51, 89.02
Will post more setups over the weekend after we get the week closed.
-Jovan