Today’s action not surprising, mentioned yesterday that ES needed to break out TODAY “or else it’s likely we will drop to test 4034-4056 rapidly as markets are running out of chances and time to breakout and bears can undo a month of bullishness in just a couple of sessions.”
Today we attempted to breakout and failed, finishing the cash session just below 4100. Below 4124 bears can sustain pressure and we can head towards 4000.
We also had a great catch in TSLA 0.00%↑ where we noticed repeated sweeps of the $200P and $205P for FEB 17 coming in over and over while TSLA was at $217. These went up over 1000% in today’s session alone and there is possible continuation tomorrow.
ES appears to have created a gap down scenario - I think for tomorrow as long as we stay below 4124, we are likely to retest 4056, which, if it falls, should take us to 4000. This would have completed the “max pain” scenario for options for this month, for opex, as this is the same level we were at last month, for opex.
For tomorrow I will be watching the following tickers and levels:
$SPY
408.78 pivot
→ Below pivot target 406.61 and 403.75. Overshoot to 400.67 if 403.75 falls.
→ Above pivot target 410.56 and 411.58. Overshoot to 413.75 and potential breakout if 413.75 is taken out
AAPL 0.00%↑ (multiple rejections now at major resistance (156))
Put sweeper activity detected into 150P FEB 24
153.56 pivot
→ Below pivot target 152.42 (8ema) then 150.73. Overshoot is 200SMA 147.45, that’s more likely if there is a big sell and if we are ready to drop below 4000 on ES.
→ Above pivot target 159.54
TSLA 0.00%↑
Aggressive put sweeper activity detected into 200p, 205p, 210p for FEB 17 and 200P for FEB 24.
198.02 Pivot
→ Below pivot target 194, 190
→ Above pivot target 204, 210
- Jovan