From yesterday’s newsletter:
“396.60 is immediately below, a fib level and also where the 50SMA sits. It’s possible for us to see some tight range action here between 396.60 and 406.60 until we can manage a close below 396.60 or above 406.61 (keep in mind the 407.22 dp sell level).”
SPY 0.00%↑ indeed sold down to that 396.60 level but there buyers stepped in and took us right back to $402. Until we see a close below 396.60, or above 406.60 as mentioned yesterday, we can see some more tight range action here.
The sell to the lows today was despite NVDA 0.00%↑’s ER pump which took it as high as 15% for the day before finding some initial resistance. Heavy put sweepers coming into that name, and likely it will soon shed 30% from these levels but more on that later.
Tomorrow is a Friday and $ES_F is set to end the week with 4 consecutive lower highs and finally a lower low since Jan 31.
Data calendar for tomorrow:
I will be keeping an eye on these levels for tomorrow:
$ES_F
Unless we can bid above 4034 we should continue to see more rangebound action between 3970 and 4034.
If we open above 4034 / bid above in the first half of the day, we can likely target 4056.
If we break below 4000 we can likely retest 3970 and see if it’s ready to break.
SPY 0.00%↑
50SMA test today and hard bounce - heavy buying came in at 396.60.
Need to keep an eye on this 400.67 level, if we can hold it, likely we can target 8ema at 404.53 and possibly order flow level 406.61. We should keep in mind there is a gap left above at 408.14 and a DP dump at 407.22
400.67 pivot.
→ Above pivot target 402.20, 404.55
→ Below pivot target 396.60. If 396.60 falls, 393.13.
NVDA 0.00%↑
Massive gap left below and lots of huge put sweepers out to MAR, APR, MAY, JUN
I cannot be bullish at these levels and will add to puts on all rips.
NVDA over 239 can see 246-250. However for timeframes out over several weeks, months, this will reverse soon.
Looking at a break of 227.30 to the downside to start the sell to 219 and lower. Targeting 200SMA conservatively and 133.95 on heavy downside momentum.
NOT 0DTE
AAPL 0.00%↑ & TSLA 0.00%↑ levels were posted in yesterday’s newsletter, the same will apply for tomorrow. You can review those again here:
The newsletter for next week will go out over the weekend.
Have a wonderful day and weekend.
-Jovan