4056 continues to be key on $ES_F, it’s unlikely for any real bearish pressure until we manage a close below that level. Until we close below that level, we must assume we can continue going higher. It’s important to note however that $SPY, $ES_F have been trading in a bull flag, and that consolidation is due for a breakout - or a fake breakout soon. It should happen this week and is setting up for another big move. For now, while its between 4095 and 4170, we will assume more chop aka consolidation.
Last week we found a large seller when we noticed several dark pool dumps/sells at the SPY $415-417 levels.
I’ll re-iterate my stance on this 11 day consolidation between 4050-4200 as a period of distribution where sellers are patiently unloading slowly into rips as to maximize the amount of liquidity they are able to extract at the highest prices possible on this record retail volume. This is supported by the fact that large sellers emerge around that 4160-4190 area however there are no subsequent large sells until price has recovered back to that same area (yet). If you are selling large in a hurry, you won’t be able to unload your position at the same price as you’ll be catching bids on the way down and cause a domino effect.
Now, as far as how we closed today, we closed over a resistance level $413.75 on SPY 0.00%↑ and 4155.13 on ES. Technically, still an inside bar to yesterday but over that resistance level and well within the bullish channel since the breakout from 3810.
IMO, market needs to break out TOMORROW or else it’s likely we will drop to test 4034-4056 rapidly as markets are running out of chances and time to breakout and bears can undo a month of bullishness in just a couple of sessions.
For tomorrow I will be watching 4184 on ES and 415.92 on SPY. If we cannot close above them tomorrow, it’s likely time for a drop down to 4034-4056 ES and 404-406.61 on SPY, likely, by OPEX, which would be the same price we were at last month for OPEX and “max pain” for options.
If ES bids above 4184 tomorrow (Now 4160) I will look to target 4204-4214 with an overshoot of 4256-4265 on a breakout (then get ready to short it heavily).
—> For SPY that’s over 415.92 target 417.81 then 419.99
If ES bids below 4124 tomorrow I will look to target 4094 then 4034-4056
—> For SPY that’s under 408.50 target 406.61 then 403.75
Some other things to consider is where AAPL 0.00%↑ closed. Over that $153.56 resistance and in a breakout technically.
For a SELL on ES/SPY we will need to see a rejection here on AAPL and a drop back below that 153.56 level. Otherwise it will melt up to 159.54 and support the breakout on SPY.
AAPL
153.56 pivot
→ Above pivot target 159.54
→ Below pivot target 152.42 (8ema) then 150.73. Overshoot is 200SMA 147.45, that’s more likely if there is a big sell and if we are ready to drop below 4000 on ES.
TSLA 0.00%↑ continues to surge after the notable 210c, 220c and 230c call buying that was coming in as it completed an 8ema backtest on Tuesday and appears headed to that 221.26 fib level
I’ve opened the 2/15 newsletter to the public now, you can read more about that here:
We had originally mentioned the 210C weekly in the discord which was at 2.26 and ballooned rapidly over 10 today. TSLA here now doesn’t have the same Risk:Reward profile at 214 than it did at 194. It does appear that we could aim for the 221.26 fib level or the 200sma at 224.67, however i’d be cautious as it appears a 2B top formation could be occurring here within the next few days.
Other mentions that did well were GOOGL 0.00%↑ , which we mentioned held the 50SMA with a hammer and could see a retracement towards the 8ema at 97. AMZN 0.00%↑ we mentioned the 100C weekly call flow and it took out that level today.
NVDA 0.00%↑ has met resistance at 227.30 ahead of it's ER next week, personally the R:R makes sense here to the downside for a short to 180. Watching for a rejection
Overall markets have been in a tight range now for a couple of weeks, and this is setting up for a 250-300pt move very soon. We noticed put premiums priced very very cheaply today. SPY $400P MAR 17 was only 3.73 today, while that is only 30 days away, if SPY got to our 360 level by exp, that’s 40+ per contract or 1000%. Higher risk than an APR or JUN put, but higher reward for the buck.
Will post real-time updates in the discord. However If I do see another round of those DP sellers emerge I will send out an update via the Substack chat.
-Jovan