4056 continues to be key on $ES_F, it’s unlikely for any real bearish pressure until we manage a close below that level. Until we close below that level, we must assume we can continue going higher. It’s important to note however that $SPY, $ES_F have been trading in a bull flag, and that consolidation is due for a breakout - or a fake breakout soon. It should happen this week and is setting up for another big move. For now, while its between 4095 and 4170, we will assume more chop aka consolidation.
Last week we found a large seller when we noticed several dark pool dumps/sells at the SPY 0.16%↑ $415-417 levels. More recently I noticed a small buyer at the $408 level however no further large sells since our hard rejection at 4174 on Thursday.
This continues to be the case, even today as CPI did not result in a break of that 4100-4200 range we have been trading for 10 days now. It is max pain for option traders as all premiums, whether calls or puts, they have all been drained thus far. This is a typical precursor to a large (300+) point move.
The bearish flow continues to come in after FEB 24. March, April, May, Jun, July, Sep, you name it, lots of OTM put flow continue to come in. There is no real bullish far OTM call flow on anything aside from TSLA (medium-long term). There have not been any DP sells reported yet either since the initial dumps at 415-416. IMO this feels like distribution, where they are unloading on every rally back to 413-418 area. Which makes perfect sense as that 4200 is a major resistance zone.
Now there is still time in the session, but so far the rally was capped / brought to a halt at the bull flag resistance line. It will need to clear that tomorrow to move to 4200. Any gap down or failure here will likely retest bottom of the channel.
Chop aside on the indexes, we saw a great move on TSLA 0.00%↑ which I pointed out yesterday that as long as it was above 194, and if it got over 200, it would make another run for 210. The real test is at 210, if it breaks, this can fly rapidly to 221-235.
Yesterday’s post:
Today we saw a beautiful move and TSLA up over 6.5%
For tomorrow I will watch the following levels:
SPY 0.00%↑
406.61 & 413.75 Pivots
Chop if between those two levels.
Range break comes on break over 413.75 to target 419.99 to the upside or a break below 406.61 to target 400.67 to the downside.
R levels to upside, 413.75, 415.92, 417.81, 419.99
S levels to downside, 411.58, 410.56, 406.61, 403.75, 400.67
Hang in there folks, a break of this range is coming.
- Jovan