CPI tomorrow, expect volatility
SPY sideways for 9 days waiting for CPI, breakout day tomorrow?
4056 must fall in order for there to be a sell towards that next level at 4000. A daily close below 4000 would start a pullback to 3900-3950.
If there is no daily close below 4056, then we are likely setting up for 4200+.
The bullish channel has been holding thus far since the breakout at 3810, now 4150. $ES_F has been rangebound for 9 sessions now ahead of CPI
4056 continues to be key on $ES_F, it’s unlikely for any real bearish pressure until we manage a close below that level. Until we close below that level, we must assume we can continue going higher. It’s important to note however that $SPY, $ES_F have been trading in a bull flag, and that consolidation is due for a breakout - or a fake breakout soon. It should happen this week and is setting up for another big move. For now, while its between 4095 and 4170, we will assume more chop aka consolidation.
Last week we found a large seller when we noticed several dark pool dumps/sells at the SPY 0.00%↑ $415-417 levels. More recently I noticed a small buyer at the $408 level however no further large sells since our hard rejection at 4174 on Thursday.
The orderflow continues to lean bearish, after FEB 17.
For tomorrow I will lean on the following levels:
—> If ES is below 4095, likely a retest of 4056 comes. If it falls, likely the start of a multi-day sell towards 3914-3956.
—> If ES is above 4170, likely a breakout (even if it’s a fake breakout) to 4205 and 4223 with an overshoot of 4256
For SPY 0.00%↑ I will use these levels:
—> 413.75 Pivot
—> Above pivot target 415.92, 417.81
→ A break above 417.81 targets 419.99 and 422.23 overshoot
—> Below pivot target 411.58, 410.56, 406.61
→ A break below 406.61 targets 400.67.
I’m interested in a few other tickers tomorrow…
AAPL 0.00%↑
AAPL closed right at resistance, if a trend day to the upside develops due to CPI can see a breakout to that $159.54 level. Downside trend day would lead to gapfill and support test at 146.
TSLA on the 4hour is in a bull flag, it needs over 210 to fire into 221-235. As long as it remains above 190, it has a good shot at least to retest 210. If 190 falls, it is a short to 175.
As always, real-time updates will be posted in the discord. After CPI, and after this week, we should have less chop and more trend days.
-Jovan