Back on Sunday I sent this possible trajectory for SPY 0.00%↑ :
With the following message:
Possible chop for rest of month, unless we get solid closes over 411.58 early in the week, or below 406.61 as mentioned. Need to see a volatility event, or catalyst for a big breakout of range.
And here is the result after this week so far:
We now have closed again above the wedge in an attempted breakout but right below major resistance.
SPY DP at 409.22 for now was a confirmed BUY and CPI frontrun. The bearish flow however continues to pile in and this rally is going to be over soon enough. While $6-8 of upside is possible on SPY, $50+ of a drop is likely within the next 3 months, and taking so much unnecessary long side risk for $5-6 makes little sense to me and so I cannot chase upside any longer.
For tomorrow here’s what i’m watching:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to JR28 TRADING SUBSTACK to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.